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Writer's pictureJohnson Odakkal, PhD, CEO
Nov 77 min read

Is an African Spring on the Rise?

Updated: Nov 8

Another Episode of “Global Canvas” from JOI

We hope you had an enjoyable festive break. The Global Canvas series resumes with a compelling case study, inviting you to explore pressing global issues in depth. So, let us dive into this week’s case study of a possible African spring!

Could Africa’s youth finally be demanding the change they’ve long desired? With mounting protests across Kenya, Uganda, and Nigeria, young people are pushing for political accountability, economic fairness, and social reforms. Could these youth-led movements, sparked by social media and galvanised by years of unfulfilled promises, be the beginning of Africa’s own “Spring”? This case study will examine the dynamics behind these protests, analyse their political implications, and consider whether this moment is the start of something truly transformative for the continent.


For decades, many African nations have been plagued by political instability, economic challenges, and corruption. Yet, in the summer of 2024, waves of youth-led protests across Kenya, Uganda, and Nigeria have sparked widespread conversations about the possibility of an African Spring. Inspired by the Arab Spring’s call for reform, these protests seek to challenge oppressive governance, demand economic reform, and address widespread social inequities. The question now arises: Are we witnessing the beginning of a broader movement that could reshape Africa’s political future, or will these protests fizzle out, as many have before? With the rise of digital platforms amplifying youth voices, the global community is watching closely to see how this moment unfolds.



Context and Background


The situation in Africa today echoes the frustrations that fueled the Arab Spring: economic hardship, governmental corruption, and lack of political accountability. In Kenya, the protests began in June 2024 when President William Ruto’s government introduced a new tax policy, imposing higher taxes on essential goods. The measure was introduced to raise government revenue, but for many Kenyans, already struggling under the weight of a mounting debt crisis, it was the last straw. Protests grew, particularly among the youth, who have long been disillusioned with the political elite’s inability to address their economic needs. On June 18, the first protests erupted in Nairobi, and by June 25, tensions had escalated as the government pushed forward with the bill. Ruto’s eventual withdrawal of the tax bill did little to quell the discontent, as protesters shifted focus to broader issues, including corruption, government inefficiency, and the unfulfilled promises of the ruling elite.


This unrest spread quickly beyond Kenya’s borders. In Uganda, a similar wave of protests erupted on July 25, 2024. The young people of Uganda, tired of President Yoweri Museveni’s decades-long rule and his failure to eradicate corruption, took to the streets demanding accountability. Their message was clear: “The corrupt are messing with the wrong generation.” The situation escalated, with security forces clamping down hard on demonstrators. Uganda’s protests were directly influenced by the events in Kenya, and they demonstrated how regional discontent can converge to create a broader movement.


Meanwhile, Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, experienced its own wave of protests on August 1, 2024. Young Nigerians were incensed by soaring inflation, high unemployment, and the economic policies of President Bola Tinubu’s administration. Protests, led by the youth, rallied under the #EndBadGovernance movement, calling for sweeping reforms and an end to the corruption that has long plagued Nigerian politics. However, an unexpected twist occurred when some protesters in Nigeria raised Russian flags, signaling dissatisfaction not only with their government but also with Western economic policies. This added an international dimension to the protests, showcasing how global geopolitics could influence local movements.


Key Players and Stakeholders

The key players in this emerging “African Spring” are the youth activists who are using social media to organise, rally support, and spread their messages of change. These activists represent a new generation of African leaders who are unafraid to challenge authority and demand a more just and equitable society. From Kenya’s university campuses to Uganda’s urban streets, young people are using platforms like Twitter, TikTok, and Instagram to spread their calls for action, quickly mobilising mass protests.

Political leaders such as President William Ruto of Kenya, President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, and President Bola Tinubu of Nigeria are crucial stakeholders, as they navigate the growing discontent. In each case, the governments have responded to the protests with varying degrees of resistance. While some leaders have attempted to appease the protesters with promises of reform, others have resorted to violent crackdowns. The outcome of these movements will largely depend on whether these governments can effectively address the grievances of their citizens or if the protests will escalate into broader uprisings.

In addition to the domestic political players, international stakeholders also play a role. Governments and organisations from the West, such as the United States and the European Union, have kept a close eye on the protests, with some offering support to the youth movements, while others remain cautious about interfering in the internal politics of sovereign nations. The protests in Nigeria also raised the issue of external influence, with the appearance of Russian flags in some demonstrations signalling the increasing influence of non-Western powers in Africa’s political sphere.



Major Concerns and Consequences

The protests in Kenya, Uganda, and Nigeria are a direct result of growing economic instability and widespread dissatisfaction with governance. However, the potential consequences of these movements are far-reaching. First and foremost, the economic impact of the protests cannot be ignored. In each of these countries, young people have become the face of resistance, challenging policies that they feel have left them disenfranchised and economically marginalised. In Kenya, for example, the protests against the tax bill underscore how difficult economic conditions can spark widespread unrest, especially when the government is seen as out of touch with the needs of the population.

Another major concern is the potential for escalating violence. In Uganda and Nigeria, security forces have responded to peaceful protests with force, raising questions about the government’s commitment to democratic principles and human rights. In Uganda, the government has already deployed military forces to suppress demonstrations, and in Nigeria, the police have used tear gas and live ammunition to disperse crowds. The ongoing violence against protesters could exacerbate political instability, leading to a breakdown in social cohesion and potentially resulting in broader unrest.


Furthermore, the international response to these movements will play a critical role in shaping their trajectory. Will global powers support these protests as legitimate calls for democratic reform, or will they side with the incumbents in an attempt to maintain stability? The outcome could shape not only the political landscape in Africa but also the global order, as these movements reflect larger shifts in international relations and the balance of power.



Political Perspectives and Understanding

The political dynamics of these protests reveal important lessons for students of global politics. From a realist perspective, these youth-led movements are seen as direct challenges to the political order, and governments will do whatever it takes to suppress them. The protests are viewed as threats to the stability of the state, and the use of force to quash dissent is a common strategy in the realist framework, which prioritises the preservation of state sovereignty over human rights or democratic reforms.

From a liberal internationalism standpoint, these movements are seen as legitimate demands for democratic reform, and the international community is expected to support them in their pursuit of greater freedom, transparency, and accountability. Western nations and international organisations may provide moral support or even economic aid to encourage peaceful resolution and support the aspirations of the youth.


From a constructivist viewpoint, the role of social media in these movements is critical. Social media platforms have allowed activists to bypass traditional state-controlled narratives and create a new space for public discourse. The protests are not just local incidents; they are part of a larger, global conversation about governance, economic justice, and political freedom. The way these movements are perceived and how they evolve will likely be shaped by the narratives constructed through digital media.


Takeaways

Africa’s youth are redefining what it means to be politically engaged, using digital platforms to mobilise, amplify their voices, and call for governance reforms across borders. For students of global politics, the African Spring serves as an impactful case study of how non-state actors and digital activism can alter traditional power dynamics. The movement exemplifies how social media democratises influence and provides a powerful medium for the public to advocate for transparency, justice, and change in a continent often marked by governmental constraints on free speech. 

Compiled by Commodore (Dr) Johnson Odakkal (with support from Ms Kashmira Juwatkar and Ms Supriya Mishra) 

Stay Tuned for More!

As the Global Canvas series continues, we will explore more moments where politics and economic shifts intersect. Interested in a future topic? Share your ideas, and your suggestion could be featured in an upcoming episode. For more insights, visit us at www.johnsonodakkal.com or email us at ceo@johnsonodakkal.com

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