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German Elections 2025 : Ideologies in Transition

Another Episode of “Global Canvas” by JOI

Germany stands at a pivotal juncture as it approaches the snap federal elections scheduled for February 23, 2025. These elections are not merely a contest for political power—they are a referendum on the shifting ideological landscape of Europe’s largest democracy. The traditional lines of German politics, once dominated by centrist parties like the SPD and CDU/CSU, are blurring under the weight of public disillusionment, economic uncertainty, and global geopolitical challenges.

This week on Global Canvas, we explore how the 2025 German elections reflect a nation caught between competing visions of identity and governance. Will Germany’s fractured electorate find common ground in a stable coalition, or will this ideological transition lead to prolonged political uncertainty, reshaping Germany’s role in Europe and the world?



Context and Background


Germany, the largest economy in Europe and a cornerstone of the European Union, is heading into one of its most unpredictable federal elections in recent history. Germany has been known for durable coalitions built on plodding consensus. This will be only the second so-called snap election since West and East Germany reunified more than three decades ago.


The previous coalition, known as the "traffic light" coalition, brought together the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) of Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner’s Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Robert Habeck-led pro-environment Greens. Initially heralded as a progressive alliance aimed at tackling climate change, modernizing the economy, and reinforcing Germany's role within the EU, the coalition quickly began to unravel under the weight of internal divisions. Disputes over energy policies, particularly the transition to renewable energy and the phasing out of nuclear power created rifts within the coalition. Additionally, disagreements on fiscal policies, including the controversial debt brake and public spending on infrastructure, deepened the cracks.


These challenges were further compounded by external pressures. The ongoing energy crisis, spurred by geopolitical tensions viz a viz Russia-Ukraine war, rising inflation, stagnant wages, and growing public dissatisfaction with the government's response to economic hardships fueled a sense of disillusionment among voters. Meanwhile, issues such as immigration and integration have reignited debates over national identity and Germany’s role as a destination for asylum seekers and economic migrants. The dissolution of the coalition also highlights a broader trend in German politics: the fragmentation of the traditional party system. Voters are increasingly turning away from established parties like the SPD and CDU/CSU in favour of alternatives that promise radical change or address specific grievances.


The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has capitalized on this discontent, gaining traction by criticizing the government’s handling of the energy crisis, immigration, and economic policies. In 2024, 16% of youths voted for the AfD in the EU elections, a steep rise from 5% in 2019, tripling the party's share in this demographic and putting it almost on par with the centre-right alliance of CDU/CSU. On the other end of the spectrum, the Greens and other smaller parties are vying for support from progressive voters who feel the major parties have not done enough to address climate change or social inequality.


Key Players and Stakeholders


Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU). Traditionally centre-right, the CDU/CSU alliance is experiencing a resurgence in popularity. Under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, the bloc is positioning itself as a stabilizing force capable of steering Germany through economic recovery and policy reforms. They emphasize fiscal conservatism and economic revitalization.


Alternative for Germany (AfD). Positioned on the far-right, Alice Weidel-led, the AfD has gained traction by capitalizing on public discontent with the previous government's handling of economic and immigration issues. Their nationalist rhetoric and scepticism towards the European Union resonate with a segment of the electorate seeking radical change. Notably, the AfD has made inroads among younger voters, a demographic traditionally less aligned with far-right ideologies.


Social Democratic Party (SPD). Olaf Scholz-led SPD, a center-left party, is striving to regain voter trust following the coalition's collapse. Their campaign focuses on social justice, labour rights, and progressive economic policies aimed at addressing income inequality and enhancing social welfare.


The Greens. Led by Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock, the Greens are doubling down on their commitment to ecological transformation and social equity. Their campaign focuses on renewable energy adoption, tackling climate change, and promoting investments in housing, education, and infrastructure. Despite their ambitious agenda, the Greens face criticism for compromises made during their previous coalition tenure, particularly on key environmental objectives amid the energy crisis. As they push forward, they must prove they can balance their visionary ideals with pragmatic governance.


Free Democratic Party (FDP). Under the leadership of Christian Lindner, the FDP remains steadfast in its promotion of economic liberalism and innovation. Their platform includes fostering entrepreneurship, reducing bureaucratic barriers, and expanding digital infrastructure. However, their staunch fiscal conservatism has drawn criticism for stalling investments in social welfare and infrastructure. The FDP’s challenge lies in broadening its appeal without alienating its pro-business base.



Major Concerns and Consequences


Germany’s economy, in its second year of contraction, faces challenges including inflation, energy insecurity, and declining industrial output. Rising public discontent over job security and housing affordability has created fertile ground for populist movements, further destabilizing the political landscape.


A fragmented Bundestag could delay critical reforms, weakening Germany’s role within the EU. Prolonged coalition negotiations may exacerbate public distrust in democratic institutions. The rise of the far-right AfD, with its nationalist and anti-immigration rhetoric, adds to the uncertainty, potentially shifting policy debates and complicating coalition-building. Conversely, the CDU/CSU alliance offers a chance for stability if they can bridge ideological divides. The election’s outcome will shape Germany’s domestic priorities and its ability to act as a stabilizing force in Europe.


As Germany navigates these uncertain times, its leaders must balance resilience with adaptability to meet the challenges ahead.


Theoretically Speaking

Realism, with its focus on power dynamics and national interests, analyses Germany's elections through the lens of its geopolitical position. As Europe’s largest economy and one of the most influential states in the EU, Germany wields significant power. However, this power comes with the challenge of balancing its domestic priorities with its international responsibilities.


The rise of parties such as the far-right AfD reflects growing nationalist sentiments that prioritize German sovereignty over multilateral cooperation. Realism also views Germany’s elections in the context of shifting global power structures. A politically stable and economically robust Germany would likely continue to assert itself as a key power in Europe, whereas a fragmented government might weaken its ability to respond effectively to external pressures.


Constructivism focuses on the role of ideas, identities, and norms in shaping political behaviour. From this perspective, Germany’s elections highlight evolving societal values and debates over national identity, shaped by historical memory and contemporary challenges.


The resurgence of parties like the AfD signals a shift in parts of the electorate’s identity, emphasizing nationalism, anti-immigration sentiment, and scepticism toward globalism. This challenges Germany’s post-World War II identity as a liberal, multilateralist state committed to human rights and international cooperation. The rise of such narratives could alter Germany’s domestic and foreign policy priorities, potentially shifting the country’s approach to immigration, EU integration, and climate action.


Takeaways

This snap election comes at a time when Germany is grappling with economic stagnation, social tensions, and shifting voter allegiances, creating an environment ripe for political transformation

It carries significant implications beyond Germany’s borders. As the largest contributor to the EU budget and a key player in shaping EU policies. A fragmented Bundestag and protracted coalition negotiations could weaken Germany’s leadership role within the EU, at a time when the union faces challenges ranging from energy security to navigating an increasingly multipolar world order.


The upcoming elections represent more than just a domestic political contest. They are a litmus test for Germany’s ability to navigate its internal divisions and maintain its position as a stable, forward-looking force in Europe and the world.


Compiled by Commodore (Dr) Johnson Odakkal (with support from Ms Vivaksha Vats) 

Stay Tuned for More!

As the Global Canvas series unfolds, we’ll continue to examine pivotal moments shaping the intersection of politics and governance in today's world. If you’re eager to contribute or explore more about how emerging political landscapes influence global dynamics, visit us at www.johnsonodakkal.com or reach out via email at ceo@johnsonodakkal.com . Stay connected as we delve deeper into the challenges and opportunities defining the future of global politics.

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