South Africa's 2024 Election: A Watershed Moment in Democratic Evolution

Mar 77 min read

Another Episode of “Global Canvas” by JOI

In a historic turn of events, South Africa's 2024 general election marked the end of the African National Congress's (ANC) uninterrupted 30-year majority rule. ANC secured just 40% of the vote, necessitating coalition partnerships with the opposition to form the government.

This week on Global Canvas, we delve into the intricate dynamics of South Africa's 2024 election, exploring the factors that led to the ANC's decline, the emerging new political entities, and the broader implications for the nation's future. The question: Does this electoral outcome represent a democratic renaissance for South Africa, or will it herald a period of political instability?

Context and Background

South Africa employs a closed-list proportional representation system for its elections, designed to ensure that political parties gain seats in both the national and provincial parliaments based on the percentage of votes they receive. Voters cast three separate ballots: one for a political party in the National Assembly, one for a party or independent candidate representing their province in the National Assembly, and one for the provincial legislature.

The National Assembly consists of 400 members, with 200 elected from national party lists and the other 200 from provincial party lists. To form a government independently, a party must secure more than 50% of the seats—at least 201 out of 400. This majority is crucial because, after the general election, the National Assembly members are responsible for electing the President.

Since the end of apartheid (the former official government policy in South Africa of separating people of different races and making them live apart) in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) has been the dominant force in South African politics, consistently securing comfortable majorities that allowed it to govern without forming coalitions. The ANC’s historical significance as the party that led the struggle against apartheid, coupled with its early post-apartheid achievements, solidified its political stronghold for decades. However, the 2024 general election, held on May 29, marked a dramatic departure from this trend. The ANC secured only 40% of the vote, falling significantly short of the majority needed to govern independently.

This outcome represents a pivotal shift in South Africa’s political landscape, signalling declining public confidence in the party’s ability to address the country’s pressing challenges. Several factors contributed to this erosion of support. Public dissatisfaction with high unemployment has weakened the ANC’s support. Additionally, numerous corruption scandals involving high-ranking ANC officials have tarnished the party’s image, eroding trust among voters. These issues have been compounded by deteriorating public services, including unreliable electricity supply, poor healthcare infrastructure, and inadequate water management.

Moreover, younger voters, known as the “born-free” generation— those born after apartheid— are more focused on issues like job creation, education, and social justice, and are increasingly open to supporting new political movements that promise change.The emergence of new political parties, most notably the uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, has also fragmented the electorate. Founded by former President Jacob Zuma just six months before the election, the MK party resonated with voters, especially in economically marginalized communities.

After the election, the ANC formed a government of national unity in coalition with the DA, the main opposition party, which had secured 21.63% of the vote and other parties. For the first time in South Africa’s democratic history, the country has formed a national coalition government. The election result underscores the deep-rooted inequalities that persist in South Africa, despite the progress made since the end of apartheid. Economic disparities remain stark, with wealth and opportunities often concentrated in urban areas, while rural communities continue to face poverty and underdevelopment.

Key Players and Stakeholders

The African National Congress (ANC), founded in 1912, is South Africa’s oldest political party and played a pivotal role in the struggle against apartheid. Originally established as the South African Native National Congress, it aimed to unite African people and advocate for their rights under colonial rule. The party gained global recognition for its leadership in the anti-apartheid movement, with iconic figures like Nelson Mandela at the forefront.

Since the end of apartheid in 1994, the ANC has been the dominant force in South African politics, leading the government for nearly three decades. Currently, the party is led by Cyril Ramaphosa, who has served as South Africa’s President since 2018, focusing on economic reforms, anti-corruption efforts, and social development amid growing internal challenges and declining electoral support.

The Democratic Alliance (DA) is South Africa’s main opposition party, known for its liberal democratic values and emphasis on good governance, economic growth, and anti-corruption. Its origins trace back to the Progressive Party, founded in 1959, which opposed apartheid policies within the parliamentary system. Over time, through a series of mergers and rebranding, it evolved into the DA in 2000. The party has traditionally drawn support from urban, middle-class, and minority communities, positioning itself as a champion of non-racialism and market-friendly policies. Currently led by John Steenhuisen, the DA has been gaining ground by focusing on issues like service delivery, government accountability, and economic reforms. The Democratic Alliance (DA), the main opposition party, secured 21% of the vote, maintaining its position as a significant political force.

The uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) Party founded by former President Jacob Zuma, derives its name from the military wing of the African National Congress which fought against apartheid during the country's liberation struggle. MK established just months before the general election, quickly gained significant support, drawing former ANC members disillusioned with the party's current direction. The MK Party's base is primarily composed of economically marginalized, predominantly Zulu voters (a member of a South African people traditionally living mainly in KwaZulu-Natal province) voters who resonate with Zuma's populist rhetoric and leadership. It made a strong impact in the election, securing around 14% of the vote, becoming the third-largest party in South Africa's National Assembly. The party's rise reflects growing frustration with the ANC's failure to address ongoing issues that have plagued the post-apartheid state.

Major Concerns and Consequences

The ANC loss of majority has ushered South Africa into an era of coalition politics, relatively uncharted territory for the nation. While this development could lead to more inclusive governance, it also raises concerns about political instability and policy paralysis. The necessity for coalition-building may result in fragile alliances, potentially hindering decisive action on critical issues such as economic reform, unemployment, & social inequality. Moreover, the rise of populist parties like the MK introduces uncertainties regarding policy direction and adherence to democratic norms.

Theoretically Speaking

Elite theory suggests that political power is concentrated in the hands of a small ruling elite, which, over time, becomes disconnected from the public. The ANC, once the dominant political force championing liberation and democracy, has faced accusations of corruption, inefficiency, and internal factionalism, eroding public trust. The emergence of MK represents a populist backlash from disenfranchised voters who felt abandoned by the ruling party. Similarly, the DA’s increasing support from middle-class and urban voters reflects frustration with ANC misgovernance. This shift suggests that when ruling elites fail to address societal concerns, political alternatives emerge, leading to electoral fragmentation.

Political realignment theory suggests that when longstanding parties fail to address voter concerns, new political alliances and party loyalties emerge. In the South African context, the ANC’s historical coalition of Black voters, trade unions, and grassroots activists has fractured due to economic discontent, generational shifts, and rising populism. The DA has consolidated support among urban, middle-class voters, while MK has attracted disillusioned ANC supporters, particularly in Zuma’s Zulu heartland. This election signals a major realignment, where traditional party loyalties are breaking down, and South Africa’s political landscape is becoming more competitive and fragmented.

Takeaways

South Africa's 2024 general election represents a pivotal moment in the nation's democratic journey. The ANC's loss of majority underscores growing public demand for accountability and effective governance. The emergence of new political players and the shift towards coalition politics present both opportunities for more representative governance and challenges related to political stability. As South Africa navigates this new political terrain, the resilience of democratic institutions and the commitment of its leaders to collaborative governance will be crucial determinants of its future trajectory.

Note: Cyril Ramaphosa of the ANC was re-elected as the President of South Africa with the support of the Democratic Alliance (DA), Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and several smaller parties, forming a coalition government known as the Government of National Unity. John Steenhuisen, leader of the DA, currently serves as the Minister of Agriculture, while Velenkosini Hlabisa, leader of the IFP, has been appointed as the Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs.

Compiled by Commodore (Dr) Johnson Odakkal (with support from Ms Vivaksha Vats)

Stay Tuned for More!

As the Global Canvas series continues, we will explore key moments reshaping political landscapes and governance worldwide. South Africa’s 2024 election marks a turning point in the nation’s democratic evolution, raising critical questions about coalition governance, political accountability, and the future of leadership in emerging democracies.

What other global events or political issues would you like us to cover next? Drop your suggestions in the comments or reach out! Visit www.johnsonodakkal.com or email ceo@johnsonodakkal.com to stay engaged as we analyze the forces driving change in governance, diplomacy, and international affairs.