Geopolitics in Action: Taiwan's Perilous Strait

Dec 6, 20246 min read

Updated: Dec 7, 2024

Another Episode of “Global Canvas” from JOI

Imagine a region where the hum of military jets and naval drills frequently pierces the tranquillity, signalling a growing tension that resonates far beyond its shores. This is the Taiwan Strait today—a hotspot of geopolitical friction.

In recent years, China has intensified its military activities around Taiwan, conducting drills that underscore Beijing’s intent to assert its sovereignty claims. This unfolding situation raises pressing questions on the Global Canvas: What lies beneath these manoeuvres? Is this mere posturing or a precursor to conflict? How does this escalation shape the future of global security?

Context and Background

One must delve into the long-standing historical and political complexities between China and Taiwan to understand the current situation. After the Chinese Civil War (1945–1949), the defeated Nationalist government retreated to Taiwan, establishing it as the Republic of China (ROC). Meanwhile, the Communist Party took control of mainland China, founding the People's Republic of China (PRC). Since then, Beijing has considered Taiwan a breakaway province, while Taiwan maintains its independent government.

For decades, this uneasy status quo was maintained through diplomatic ambiguity, with most nations—including the United States—adopting a "One China" policy but fostering unofficial relations with Taiwan. However, in recent years, China's growing military strength and assertive foreign policy have heightened tensions.

2020 marked a shift in China's military tactics, with incursions becoming routine. Chinese aircraft repeatedly breached Taiwan's ADIZ (Air Defence Identification Zone). For instance, in September 2020, ROC documented two Y-8 anti-submarine warfare incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ, signalling a readiness to challenge Taiwan’s airspace sovereignty.

In August 2020, China conducted live-fire naval and air force exercises, including live ammunition and missile tests, simulating an attack on Taiwan. These drills, a response to heightened U.S.-Taiwan relations under the Trump administration, aimed to exert psychological pressure on Taiwan while signalling Beijing's displeasure with increasing U.S. support.

In April 2021, China conducted joint landing exercises featuring amphibious assault training, including beach landings and assault operations. These drills occurred shortly after a U.S. Navy warship transited the Taiwan Strait, underscoring China's strategic focus on demonstrating its military readiness and disapproval of U.S. naval presence in the region.

In August 2022, China escalated its military activity with unprecedented live-fire drills around Taiwan, retaliating against U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei. The exercises included missile launches over Taiwan and simulated blockades, signaling a significant shift in China's military posturing. For the first time, major assets such as the aircraft carriers Liaoning and Shandong, a Type 75 amphibious assault ship, a Type 55 cruiser, and multiple Type 54 frigates, were mobilised. This display of military might underscored China's capability to enforce strategic blockades and heightened regional tensions.

The drills expanded further in 2023, following Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. In April, the Chinese military responded with “United Sharp Sword”/ “Allied Sword” drills” exercises, simulating joint attacks and naval blockades. The year also saw significant naval exercises, with the deployment of China's first domestically built aircraft carrier, the Shandong, showcasing China's maritime expansion. July of the same year saw China conduct nighttime air and naval drills around Taiwan. These exercises involved simulated combat scenarios demonstrating China's readiness and advanced tactics under low-visibility conditions. The manoeuvres highlighted a focus on enhancing combat effectiveness during nighttime operations, further intensifying regional tensions.

In 2024, the intensity remained unabated, with China’s “Joint Sword-2024A” drills simulating precision strikes and tightening its “stranglehold” narrative. Triggered by President Lai’s inauguration speech, these drills included an unprecedented scale of live-fire exercises and air incursions, continuing to challenge Taiwan’s readiness and U.S. commitments in the region.

In May 2024, China conducted its Joint Sword-2024A drills, a large-scale military exercise marking a significant escalation in its Taiwan-focused operations. The exercise, involving 111 aircraft and 46 naval vessels, included 82 aircraft crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait, with some nearing Taiwan's 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone.

For the first time, the Chinese Coast Guard joined the PLA's air and naval forces in coordinated operations. Advanced platforms such as J-20 and J-16 fighter jets, Type 052D destroyers, and Dong Feng ballistic missiles were deployed, emphasizing joint precision strikes, missile launches, drone operations, and sea-air combat readiness. Seen as a direct response to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te's inauguration speech, these drills showcased its growing military sophistication and focus on real-world combat readiness.

Source: China Central Television (CCTV), BBC

Key Players and Stakeholders

The unfolding drama around Taiwan involves multiple actors, both state and non-state:

China (PRC): China views Taiwan as a critical component of its national identity and sovereignty. The PLA’s activities are a demonstration of Beijing's resolve to deter any Taiwanese moves toward formal independence. President Xi Jinping has emphasized reunification with Taiwan as a cornerstone of his vision for China's "great rejuvenation."

Taiwan (ROC): Under President Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan has steadfastly resisted Beijing’s pressures. Emphasizing the island's democratic values, Taiwan continues to bolster its defence capabilities, often with support from the United States and other allies. However, its strategic position makes it a vulnerable flashpoint in the Indo-Pacific.

United States and Allies: The U.S. remains a critical player, with arms sales to Taiwan and naval patrols in the region under its Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs). Allied nations like Japan and Australia have also voiced concerns, emphasizing the broader implications of China's actions for regional stability.

Non-State Stakeholders: Apart from state actors, multinational corporations, global supply chains, and civil society organizations are stakeholders in the issue. Taiwan is a global leader in semiconductor production, and any conflict would disrupt critical technological industries worldwide.

Major Concerns and Consequences

China’s military drills around Taiwan carry significant ramifications that extend far beyond the immediate region. The exercises take place perilously close to Taiwanese territory, heightening the potential for miscalculation or accidental escalation. Such incidents could quickly spiral into a broader conflict, pulling neighbouring countries and global powers into an unwanted confrontation. The resulting instability threatens to undermine regional peace and security, turning the Indo-Pacific into a flashpoint of international tension.

Taiwan’s pivotal role as a semiconductor production hub also adds a critical economic dimension to these drills. The island is the leading global supplier of advanced chips, essential for industries ranging from consumer electronics to automotive and defence technologies. Any disruption in Taiwan due to heightened military activity or conflict would disrupt the global semiconductor supply chains. Additionally, China’s military exercises highlight its increasing assertiveness on the global stage, directly challenging the U.S.-led security framework in the Indo-Pacific. The actions serve as a stark reminder of the shifting dynamics in global power.

Political Perspectives and Understanding

Through the lens of realism, China's actions reflect power politics. By showcasing military might, Beijing seeks to deter Taiwan’s independence aspirations and counter U.S. influence in the region. For realists, this is a struggle for dominance in a strategically critical area.

From a constructivist perspective, the escalating tensions are shaped by historical narratives and identity politics. Taiwan's democratic identity clashes with Beijing's vision of "One China," making this not just a territorial dispute but a conflict over incompatible political ideologies.

Takeaways

The Taiwan Strait stands as a stark reminder of how unresolved historical disputes can ripple into modern-day geopolitics. While China’s military drills serve as a flex of power, they also heighten the risk of missteps that could spark a broader conflict. For Taiwan and its allies, the challenge lies in navigating this tension while upholding sovereignty and stability.

The path forward is fraught with uncertainty. Will Beijing's actions lead to a broader conflict, or can diplomacy prevail in de-escalating tensions? As we delve deeper into these questions, one thing remains clear: the stakes are high, and the consequences are far-reaching.

Compiled by Commodore (Dr) Johnson Odakkal (with support from Ms Vivaksha Vats)

Stay Tuned for More!

The unfolding tensions in the Taiwan Strait remind us of the urgent need for dialogue and diplomacy in a rapidly changing world. Every global challenge holds lessons for humanity’s shared future. What topics or regions should we spotlight next? Share your thoughts at www.johnsonodakkal.com or reach out at ceo@johnsonodakkal.com . Let’s work together to foster informed discussions and build pathways toward a more peaceful, interconnected global community.

References and Sources