top of page

The Red Sea as a Mirror of Global Vulnerability

Another Episode of “Global Canvas” from JOI

Imagine a world where a morning coffee costs a little more, supermarket shelves appear inexplicably empty, or a favourite gadget is delayed, not because of a factory breakdown in East Asia but because a missile fired from Yemen’s mountains forced a ship to reroute 6,000 nautical miles around the Cape of Good Hope. This scenario is neither speculative fiction nor a worst case forecast. Since late 2023, it has become the lived geoeconomic reality of a deeply interconnected world.


When Yemen’s Houthi movement transformed the Red Sea into a theatre of asymmetric maritime warfare, it shattered long held assumptions about the stability of global trade routes. What began as a declared act of solidarity with Gaza quickly evolved into a sustained campaign that reshaped shipping behaviour, distorted insurance markets, and exposed how fragile the arteries of global commerce truly are. Even after a fragile ceasefire in Gaza took effect on 10 October 2025, the waters remained unsettled, revealing that the Red Sea crisis was never simply a by-product of another war but a manifestation of deeper structural vulnerabilities.



Context and Background


The Red Sea occupies a critical position in the global trading system, linking Europe and Asia through the Suez Canal and the Bab el Mandeb Strait. A significant share of global trade and energy shipments flows through this narrow corridor, making uninterrupted passage central to economic stability across regions.


Between November 2023 and January 2025, the Houthis deployed drones, anti ship ballistic missiles, and explosive laden speedboats against more than a hundred commercial vessels. While the tempo of attacks varied in response to regional developments, their cumulative impact was profound. Oil flows through the Bab el Mandeb declined by around 15 percent, freight prices surged by as much as 30 percent, and global trade losses exceeded 100 billion dollars.


The fragility of the maritime environment was further underscored days after the Gaza ceasefire, when a Cameroon flagged LNG tanker exploded near Aden. Although responsibility was denied, the incident highlighted a defining feature of the crisis: the blurring of attribution, authority, and accountability in a contested maritime space where insecurity persisted even in moments of diplomatic pause.



Key Players and Stakeholders

At the centre of the crisis stands the Houthi movement, an ideologically driven and technologically adept non state actor rooted in Yemen’s unresolved civil war and Zaydi political identity. Unlike the Somali pirates of the previous decade, whose actions were largely motivated by economic gain, the Houthis operate as hybrid actors. Their campaign combines ideology, insurgency, and strategic disruption of global trade.

Iran plays an undeniably central role by supplying weapons, training, intelligence, and political cover. Yet, the Houthis retain significant autonomy. Maritime disruption allows them to strengthen bargaining power within Yemen, consolidate authority over territories they control, and reinforce ideological legitimacy among supporters who frame resistance to external powers as a generational struggle. The relationship between Tehran and the Houthis is therefore best understood as a transactional alignment of interests rather than a rigid proxy hierarchy.


Other stakeholders include global shipping firms, marine insurers, energy markets, and states whose economic stability depends on uninterrupted maritime flows. The United States and the United Kingdom have responded with strikes and naval deployments, while European states, China, and India maintain a strong interest in secure passage but differ in their willingness to align with US led initiatives. These divergent approaches have produced a fragmented security architecture in a region that demands cohesion.


Major Concerns and Consequences

The most immediate consequence of the crisis has been the exposure of global supply chain fragility. War risk insurance premiums, once negligible, climbed to nearly one percent of a vessel’s hull value per transit, translating into million dollar costs for a single journey. Many shipping companies responded by rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to transit times and over a million dollars in additional fuel and operational expenses per voyage.

Beyond economic disruption, the crisis carries serious escalation risks. A misidentified vessel, a miscalculated strike, or a retaliatory response could rapidly draw regional powers and global navies into a wider confrontation. Environmental risks further compound these dangers. A disabled oil tanker, ruptured LNG vessel, or chemical spill in the confined waters near Yemen would amplify the catastrophe exponentially, with consequences extending far beyond the region.


The crisis also exposes the limitations of existing maritime security frameworks, which were designed to address piracy, smuggling, and state based conflict rather than hybrid non state actors wielding long range weapons, ideological narratives, and external support.


Political Perspectives and Understanding

From a realist perspective, the Red Sea crisis reflects underlying power politics. Iran’s regional posture, the naval responses of the United States and its partners, and the broader contest over sea control all align with realist assumptions about security and influence. Geoeconomic theory helps explain how trade routes and insurance markets have become tools of coercion, where the ability to raise transportation and risk costs functions as a strategic weapon.

Constructivist perspectives draw attention to the importance of narrative and identity. For the Houthis, maritime attacks are not only acts of coercion but also performances of resistance aimed at reinforcing legitimacy among domestic supporters and regional sympathisers. Economic liberalism highlights the paradox of interdependence, where global connectivity creates shared prosperity while simultaneously exposing economies to shared vulnerability. Complex interdependence theory further suggests how non state actors can exploit interconnected systems to exert influence disproportionate to their size.


Together, these perspectives reveal why the Houthis’ behaviour resists singular explanation and why traditional security responses alone have failed to restore stability.


Takeaways

The Red Sea crisis is not simply a maritime security challenge or an extension of the Gaza conflict. It represents a convergence of Yemen’s internal fragmentation, Iran’s regional strategy, great power hesitation, and a global economy heavily reliant on fragile chokepoints and just in time logistics.


The Gaza ceasefire did not restore maritime stability because the crisis was never confined to Gaza. Without a political settlement in Yemen, sustained multilateral cooperation, and new approaches to maritime governance that recognise the rise of hybrid non-state threats, the Red Sea will remain a persistent source of global economic and strategic disruption.


Compiled by Commodore (Dr) Johnson Odakkal (with support from Ms. Kashmira Juwatkar & Ms. Supriya Mishra) 

Stay Tuned for More!

The Red Sea crisis underscores that maritime chokepoints are far more than logistical corridors. They are living intersections of conflict, commerce, and power, where local wars, regional rivalries, and global economic dependence converge. The persistence of insecurity in the Red Sea demonstrates how unresolved political fractures, particularly in Yemen, can reverberate far beyond their immediate geography, reshaping trade flows, insurance markets, and strategic calculations worldwide.

Future editions of Global Canvas will continue to examine how hybrid conflicts and non-state actors are redefining vulnerability in an interconnected world. What maritime route, geopolitical fault line, or emerging crisis should we map next? Share your reflections and questions in the comments, and stay connected with us through www.johnsonodakkal.com 

or email us at ceo@johnsonodakkal.com


Exciting news related to the Global Canvas series coming soon! Watch out for updates!

References and Sources















bottom of page